U.S.
U.S. could see two tropical systems make landfall on same day
U.S. could see two tropical systems make landfall on same day
As we enter the heart of hurricane season, twin tropical cyclones are aimed at the U.S. mainland, with both poised to make landfall early next week — possibly on the same day.
This would be the first time two hurricanes occur in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time, which could happen Monday or Tuesday as the storms intensify.
The first of the two storms is Tropical Storm Laura.
As of the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Laura had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, was 210 miles east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and was moving west at 18 mph.
Tropical Storm Warnings were posted for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and Tropical Storm Watches for the southeastern Bahamas.
Laura was expected to move near or over the Northern Leewards on Friday and Friday night, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and over the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday night. Rain of 3 to 6 inches and in some areas up to 8 inches was possible over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday, which could cause urban flash flooding and mudslides.
On the current forecast track, the storm will approach South Florida as a strong tropical storm on Monday, then enter the Gulf of Mexico and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane Tuesday with landfall occurring along the Gulf Coast late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.
Miami to the Florida Keys to New Orleans needs to be on guard. The most likely arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds for Miami and Florida Keys is Monday morning, Tampa on Monday evening and New Orleans on Tuesday.
The second storm is Tropical Depression 14.
As of the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Friday, Tropical Depression 14 had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, was 165 miles east of the Honduran island of Roatan and was moving northwest at 14 mph. It was expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by Friday night.
A hurricane watch was up from Punta Herrero to Cancun, Mexico. The storm is expected to hit the eastern Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend with 3 to 6 inches of rain, locally up to 10 inches, possible through Sunday.
This system is forecasted to enter the Gulf of Mexico and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane Monday with landfall occurring along the Gulf Coast sometime late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.
Brownsville, Texas, to Houston to New Orleans needs to be on guard. The most likely arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds for these locations is Monday evening.
When Tropical Storm Laura was named on Friday morning, it broke the record for the earliest 12th storm on record.
With the tropical depression forecast to become a tropical storm by Saturday, it will be named Marco. and that would break the record for earliest 13th storm on record.
This is on the heels of eight other storms that set the same record this season already: Cristobal, Edouard, Fay, Hanna, Gonzalo, Isaias, Josephine and Kyle.
Given the current forecast, it is feasible there could be three U.S. landfalls in three consecutive days. Laura on Monday on south Florida or the Florida Keys, Tropical Depression 14 (Marco) on Tuesday along the Gulf Coast, and then Laura again on Wednesday along the Gulf Coast.
The record shortest time between U.S. landfalls is 23 hours on Sept. 4 and 5, 1933.
Will the two systems merge? Can they become a "super-hurricane"?
The answer is no. When tropical cyclones interact with each other, the end result is they usually both weaken to a certain extent. This interaction is called the "Fujiwhara Effect," which describes when tropical cyclones "orbit" or "dance" around each other. Dueling tropical cyclones do not play nice, and their circulations ultimately disrupt each other, promoting a weakening process. Interaction can, however, cause a shift in the track.
Over the next 24 to 48 hours confidence will grow in the track and intensity of both storms. For now, approximately 1,400 miles of U.S. coastline is in one of the cones of uncertainty so all residents along the southeast Florida and Gulf Coasts should have their hurricane plans in place and ready to go.
Science
Tracking Tropical Storm Laura and Depression 14
The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Laura has formed in the Atlantic. It's one of 2 tropical systems that could track toward the Gulf Coast, possibly as hurricanes.
U.S.
Puerto Rico prepares for Laura as it deals with pandemic, quakes and prior storm damage
Puerto Rico’s residents and emergency management authorities prepared Friday for the arrival of the latest storm to hit an island that, in the last three years, has been through two major hurricanes and several serious earthquakes and is dealing with the coronavirus pandemic.
Puerto Rico will feel the effects of Tropical Storm Laura as as early as Friday night, and the peak of the storm’s force on the island is forecast for Saturday morning. The system is expected to bring between 3 to 6 inches of rain to the island, although some areas could receive as many as 8 inches.
Friday evening Gov. Wanda Vázquez said she had signed a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Laura approached the island.
“Above all, my message for all Puerto Ricans is to keep calm. ... The majority of Puerto Ricans have their emergency plans,” she said. “What’s most important is that people who live in flood zones or near rivers know that they must look for a safe place to spend the night.”
At an afternoon press conference, public officials in Puerto Rico gave an update about Laura’s potential impact and the threat to life it could present.
Roberto García, the meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service in San Juan, said that because the island is not experiencing a drought, as it was during the passing of Tropical Storm Isaias, flooding and landslides are likelier.
Nino Correa, head of the Puerto Rico Emergency Management Bureau, assured that the agency is ready to handle the storm’s effects, but warned Puerto Ricans to stay home or in safe locations over the weekend.
He referred to the case of Marisol Morales Ruiz, a 51-year-old woman who was swept away by the flash floods caused by Tropical Storm Isaias.
“She lost her life because she went to get a cake for her husband’s birthday,” he said. “But four days later he never imagined that he would be helping us to recover his wife’s body. Simply, overconfidence kills people.”
Other officials also assured Puerto Ricans of the government’s preparations.
The Puerto Rico Public Housing Administrator said that across the island, 324 storm shelters would be available, which can open at the request of municipal mayors. The president of the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority said there were hundreds of emergency generators available to continue providing service if the power went out.
But Puerto Rico’s emergency management presents a complicated landscape. The island is managing not only this hurricane season, but also the convergence and impact of past and ongoing disasters: the COVID-19 pandemic, a sequence of earthquakes and the devastation from the 2017 hurricane season.
It’s no secret that Hurricanes Maria and Irma as well as the earthquakes have weakened Puerto Rico’s infrastructure and made responding to the seemingly frequent emergencies on the island more challenging.
Puerto Rico’s Electric Power Authority said that while it could not prevent outages, there were 231 work brigades ready to service any communities that lose power as a result of the storm. Earlier in the day, Carlos Alvarado, the PREPA chief of technical operations, told local daily El Vocero that the electric company was prepared for the tropical storm’s arrival.
“We as an agency are prepared to respond to any situation in the electrical system,” Alvarado told the paper.
By the afternoon, even before Tropical Storm Laura reached Puerto Rico’s shores, there were already 4,000 electricity clients with no power.
Hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans were left without power the day before Tropical Storm Isaias passed through, another reminder of the grid’s fragility. Thousands also did not have water service available. Many homes and communities waited for days before the utilities were restored.
Tropical Storm Laura presents another kind of threat to the earthquake-struck southwest of the island, which has experienced temblors since late December 2019, when faults in the area became active and brought thousands of earthquakes across the region. By March, more than 8,000 residences had suffered damage. During Isaias, a house in Yauco that had suffered structural damage from the quakes collapsed.
And the coronavirus is another disaster that emergency management officials must address as emergency officials make shelters available. In recent weeks, Puerto Rico’s cases and deaths from the novel coronavirus have increased.
The Department of Health will continue analyzing COVID-19 test results throughout the emergency, the governor said.
Public Safety Secretary Pedro Janer Román said that police will enforce the governor’s latest coronavirus-related executive order, which goes into effect Saturday. He said people who do not wear masks will be automatically fined, calling the enforcement “very strict and severe.”
Individuals can be fined $100, and if not paid within three days, the penalty will doubled. Meanwhile, businesses can be fined $500 for not requiring customers to wear masks.
Pedro Bonilla, the municipal director of emergency management in the town of Villalba, said that they historically tried to accommodate people who needed shelter services in relatives’ homes. With COVID-19, he said placing people in individuals’ homes was more important than ever.
Ana Celia Canales López, the municipal director of emergency management in Carolina, said that the town would be activating two shelters, but would have a maximum of five available. She added that families would need to socially distance from each other, that they would be taking people’s temperatures at the entrance, and that they would be supplying face masks, hand sanitizer, and other items to people who did not bring their own.
“What’s most important is that no matter the emergency, that people know the municipality is available to offer help and services,” said Canales López.
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